Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

Wikipedia defines self-fulfilling prophecy as: "...a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's or group of persons' belief or expectation that said prediction would come true. This suggests that people's beliefs influence their actions. The principle behind this phenomenon is that people create consequences regarding people or events, based on previous knowledge of the subject."

I was at a Christmas party this past weekend at a nearby FBO. The owner and I had the opportunity to chat for a while. I asked him how business was.

"It's good despite the challenges in parts and manpower," he said. "But I'm worried about a recession next year," he added.

I replied, "Do you think that a recession is a self-fulfilling prophecy these days? Given the fact that we live in a 24-hour news cycle, when 'experts' say we're heading in to a recession, people might be less likely to spend money even though they are doing well financially. If enough people slow down their spending, won't we fulfill the prophecy of a recession even though we are doing good? Will people start spending less because of what they hear and see on the news?"

I was at the Aircraft Distributors and Manufacturers Association (ADMA) conference in October. Every single company said business was good. "Best year ever," was mentioned at almost every meeting we had. Just about every one of them said that despite continuing supply chain issues and staffing challenges, business was good. What would happen if those companies cut back on spending and started laying off employees?

You guessed it — a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Thanks for reading, and we appreciate your feedback!

Joe