NASA-identified Mega Drivers That Will Shape Aviation
In late 2013, NASA released a Blueprint for Transforming Global Aviation. Since programs like this tend to drive various government-funded aviation research programs, it is worth reviewing to see how well this plan might affect the industry in the coming years. While government agencies are not known for their ability to forecast the long-term future accurately, neither is private industry. Any such calculated planning from any entity needs to be viewed for what it is — namely, a vision of what could be and perhaps what should be.
NASA’s Mega Drivers
The heart of the NASA blueprint is defined by three identified “mega-drivers” that are expected to shape the future of aviation over the next 20 to 40 years. These three major “mega-drivers” are expected to shape the future of aviation around the world.
The first driver is that significant growth in air travel will continue, especially in Asia. Secondly, climate change issues and global resource sustainability will become greater factors affecting operational costs and the logistics of migrating to alternate (greener) fuels. Thirdly, new technologies will have a major positive impact upon all facets of aviation from design and manufacturing to operations. This gives us a nice, clear set of comprehensive drivers from which to plan for the future. We must give credit to NASA for taking a strategic view of an industry that does not like to change unless it absolutely must.
Mega Driver 1 — Supporting Growth in Air Travel
The aviation industry has performed admirably while supporting expanding air travel throughout the world. Companies have grown their supply chains to support increased production rates of new aircraft, along with finding novel ways to reach aftermarket customers with spare parts and services anywhere on the globe. Aerospace/aviation stands as one of the shining examples of how global supply chains can support its customers (reasonably) well and wherever needed.
However, the U.S. has simply not done all that it could do to facilitate the increase in air travel. Our hub airports are mostly constrained, making it difficult to add more flights. This has a negative impact on international travelers (and cargo) from reaching the U.S. in a cost-competitive manner. As demand increases, this one factor has the ability to strangle the U.S.’s global competition. Even though the U.S. is considered a low-growth mature aviation market, it is imperative that the Federal/state/local governments invest more in the aged, constrained and obsolete transportation infrastructure. This infrastructure, built primarily to solve YESTERDAY’S needs, will not compete in today’s air transport environment.
As an example, if the U.S. would like more tourists from the Asia-Pacific region in the next 20 years, we need to make sure that we can add more airport and air traffic capacity to key airports to attract such visitors. We need to make it attractive for visitors to travel here easily, and make the expensive journey as painless as possible. The U.S. must “compete” for these visitors as tourists today and a multitude of attractive options all around the world. The lure of the U.S. is showing some tarnish and competition for their dollars is intense.
NextGen will certainly help in managing air traffic more efficiently and support some growth but much more is needed. Re-thinking the traveling experience and finding ways to streamline it would be a great start. This means not only NextGen, but also in how we design modern airports. One example is cargo shipping to and from airports. This activity is necessary but it impacts the vehicular traffic volumes and heavy wear and tear on the local roads, which leads to local opposition to any expansion efforts, etc.
If NASA is serious about providing solutions to support air travel growth, it needs to help address the impact of our old aviation and transportation infrastructure, while garnering public support for the same expansion of air travel infrastructure.
Mega Driver 2 — Global Climate Issues, Sustainability and Energy Transition
With the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) inheriting the global aviation issue related to CO2 emissions from the European Union, we are in the early stages of a potentially more comprehensive approach to how aircraft emissions will be managed and taxed. Aviation accounts for about 2.5 percent of global CO2 emissions and 13 percent of all CO2 emissions from the transportation sector. Aviation is the seventh-largest source of CO2 emissions globally (if the industry were compared to countries). For this reason, ICAO has begun to create a market-based mechanism (cap and trade scheme) for aviation by 2016, capable of being implemented by 2020. The U.S. and other countries have resisted participating in the EU’s version, but now that ICAO is tasked with the initiative, we expect objections (to the initiative) to dissipate somewhat.
Climate change issues are not the only driver behind our dependence upon petroleum-based jet fuel since national security concerns come into play. With increased oil and gas production driving down fuel prices in the U.S., and increased domestic supply, this debate might not have the same urgency as it did a few years ago. The need to diversify away from petroleum is just as valid an argument now as ever. The U.S. still imports ~40 percent of its petroleum (Y2012 figure), and while this may decline slightly in the years to come, we are still highly dependent upon imported oil. This impacts not only the availability of fuel supplies during times of crisis, but also affects our economic balance of trade.
A larger transportation industry issue is how to develop and provide “drop-in” sustainable alternative fuels. This affects not only aviation but vehicles, trains and ships as well. Aviation faces the higher level of risk for the obvious reasons, but this is a shared issue and one area where the government should concentrate its resources. This exercise requires long-term, wide-scale investments which industry is not prepared to tackle. NASA can help by leading the way in identifying and testing any and all potentially viable alternate fuels.
NASA and industry need to address two sets of issues: building more fuel-efficient aircraft and developing and using alternative fuels. Industry has been slowly advancing on the fuel efficiency front for many years now with lighter materials, more efficient engines and better operational procedures (assisted by NextGen and RVSM advances, etc.). We seem to be reaching the upper limits on what can be achieved with the base design of today’s aircraft, and radical new designs such as blended wing bodies or radical new engine technologies (or other novel research) to advance aircraft efficiencies better. These simply cannot come quickly enough.
Mega Driver 3 — Technology Convergence
This seems to be the main area where NASA can work with industry to help advance the current state. Aviation is expected to continue to profit considerably from utilizing new technologies that are revolutionizing other industries — smart materials (such as shape memory material (SMM)), additive manufacturing (aka 3-D printing), deterministic higher-bandwidth networking (the AFDX bus), and embedded micro- and nano-sensors. As a notable example, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are advancing into the commercial arena as the Y2015 deadline for the FAA nears.
We have seen a wave of consumer electronics-led advances in visual displays, handheld devices, software applications, and home automation and security, all of which were made possible with low-cost electronics. Aviation needs safe, reliable and long-life devices. These requirements often fly in the face of the disposable consumer market. Couldn’t a happy medium could be reached in augmenting many of the core technologies pioneered in various home market business cases?
New technologies, especially for lower-volume or smaller cost components, do not reach aircraft due to the cost of certification and the various levels of testing required (for good reason). Perhaps this is where NASA could provide assistance to small firms that would like to enter aviation, but lack the expertise and resources to do so. And, quite possibly, what a great way to drive a new generation of aviation pioneers into the market? Build a lab, then let them come and help push the proverbial envelope.
Just Do It
Rather than hope that NASA gets this right, it is imperative that the aviation industry pushes this agency to drive their self-defined blueprint to fruition. The U.S. aerospace and aviation industries are under attack from abroad like never before. Many other countries provide their domestic companies with greater levels of support in order to build national champions. It is time for NASA to raise its level of commitment and use the hard-won knowledge it has gained over the years to kickstart the next generation of aviation innovation. The U.S. does not need NASA to develop any new products, but rather to serve as an R&D lab to identify or refine viable far-off technologies that can later be industrialized by commercial companies. This agency should also assist entrepreneurial companies in proving out their potential products, and perhaps participate in certification processes. NASA needs to expand its focus if it hopes to succeed in addressing each of these three mega drivers. This will benefit us all, serve the public and drive the next-generation of aviation pioneers.
John Pawlicki is CEO and principal of OPM Research. He also works with Information Tool Designers (ITD), where he consults to the DOT’s Volpe Center, handling various technology and cyber security projects for the FAA and DHS. He managed and deployed various products over the years, including the launch of CertiPath (with world’s first commercial PKI bridge). John has also been part of industry efforts at the ATA/A4A, AIA and other industry groups, and was involved in the effort to define and allow the use of electronic FAA 8130-3 forms, as well as in defining digital identities with PKI. His recent publication, ‘Aerospace Marketplaces Report’ which analyzed third-party sites that support the trading of aircraft parts is available on OPMResearch.com as a PDF download, or a printed book version is available on Amazon.com.